…50% + 1! No Rerun in Sight!
Former President Peter Mutharika has not only returned to the political stage, and he’s rewriting the script entirely. With 2,022,879 votes already secured in 24 electoral councils, Mutharika has surpassed his 2020 tally and opened up a commanding lead over his nearest contender, President Lazarus Chakwera, who trails with 722,575 votes.
He is now set to break Malawi’s election record by surpassing the 3 million vote mark, a historic first for any presidential candidate in the country. Chakwera’s maximum projection stands at just 1.7 million, making a comeback not only unlikely but mathematically impossible.
Despite attempts by Chakwera’s State House and party media team to maintain a confident front, their upbeat spin in the lead-up to the official results was little more than wishful thinking. The Malawi Electoral Commission Chair is expected to announce the outcome of the remaining 12 electoral councils, but the writing is already on the wall , and it’s written in bold ink, not pencil.
Our tally centre projections now show Mutharika gaining an additional 1,009,020 votes from the remaining councils, while Chakwera will only net 1,031,700. This would bring Mutharika’s final total to 3,031,899, the highest ever recorded in Malawi’s electoral history. Meanwhile, Chakwera’s maximum ceiling is pegged at 1,754,275 , nearly half of Mutharika’s projected total.
According to Luntha Television, one of the few remaining professional voices in private media, the numbers across the districts paint a vivid picture of APM’s dominance. In Nkhatabay, Mutharika secured 39,652 votes against Chakwera’s 15,503. In Mchinji, APM received 30,215, while Chakwera soared to 126,322 , one of his few strongholds. In Phalombe, Mutharika swept with 132,301 as the sitting President managed only 2,273. In Blantyre Rural, Mutharika added 118,691 votes to his tally against Chakwera’s modest 5,002.
Chakwera will manage a smile , albeit a thin one , with results from his home base. Lilongwe Rural delivered for him with 511,278 votes, while Mutharika received 45,464. In Kasungu, Chakwera ruled the day again, getting 160,210 to Mutharika’s 50,182. But it was back to business as usual elsewhere: Karonga backed Mutharika with 45,525 compared to Chakwera’s 19,072, and in Chiradzulu, APM secured 115,607 against Chakwera’s 2,001.
Ntcheu added another boost for Mutharika with 106,917 votes, while the President got 9,063. And in a show of homegrown loyalty, Mangochi delivered a political love letter to their own with a thunderous 279,451 votes for Mutharika, the highest from any district , while Chakwera trailed with 11,358. The Mangochi Municipality wrapped up the electoral districts, giving 963 votes to APM and 108 to Chakwera.
The Malawi Electoral Commission is expected to declare the final results on Tuesday evening, but unless numbers start defying gravity, Mutharika is firmly on track to become the first leader in Malawi’s democratic history to be elected with over 3 million votes.
And just like that, “50% + 1” has a new big brother: 3 million and counting.
