…Chakwera trails by a million votes
Unofficial projections from The Investigator Magazine’s data team indicate a commanding lead for former President Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika in the recent presidential elections, with a total of 2.36 million votes captured from the 4,250,660 million votes tallied thus far. Mutharika’s strong showing, leading in 20 of the country’s 29 administrative districts, has positioned him for a potential first-round victory.
According to the Malawi Electoral Commission’s (MEC) projected 68% voter turnout, with an estimated total of 4.896 million votes cast, Mutharika is projected to secure 2,449,000 votes, a figure that would be sufficient to avoid a run-off. Senior Malawi Congress Party (MCP) officials have expressed concern to The Investigator Magazine, noting that a low voter turnout in their political strongholds of Lilongwe rural, Mchinji, Dowa, Dedza, and Ntchisi has dampened the incumbent’s electoral chances. Mutharika’s unexpected strength in areas like Dedza, Kasungu, Lilongwe City, and Salima is spelling doom for their candidate, Lazarus Chakwera.
The story of this election is also told in the parliamentary results, with all cabinet ministers from the Southern and Northern regions reportedly losing their seats, as well as the majority in the central region, following primary elections riddled with fraud and favoritism.
The regional vote projections for Mutharika are as follows: In the Southern political region, he is projected to receive 946,000 votes from the 1,141,066 tallied by Wednesday morning, broken down by district as Nsanje (63,000), Chikwawa (130,000), Thyolo (143,000), Mulanje (154,000), Phalombe (88,000), Chiradzulu (95,000), Blantyre (180,000), Neno (33,000), and Mwanza (35,000).
In the Eastern political region, The Investigator Magazine projects Mutharika’s vote total to be 720,000 from the approximately 950,000 votes tallied. This includes Ntcheu (102,000), Mangochi (210,000), Balaka (93,000), Machinga (112,000), and Zomba (203,000).
The Central region, while an MCP stronghold, is projected to give Mutharika 391,000 votes from the 1,350,000 tallied so far. This includes Mchinji (55,000), Lilongwe city (125,000), Dedza (37,000), Dowa (28,000), Ntchisi (23,000), Salima (44,000), Nkhotakota (26,000), and Kasungu (53,000).
In the Northern region, Mutharika is projected to get 309,000 votes of the 540,000 tallied so far, with a breakdown of Nkhatabay (35,000), Likoma Islands (3,000), Mzimba (156,000), Rumphi (25,000), Karonga (54,000), and Chitipa (36,000).
On the other hand, President Chakwera’s vote count stands at 1.317 million. His biggest political prize, Lilongwe, will give him slightly 410,000 votes, while other strongholds such as Dowa (150,000), Dedza (168,000), Kasungu (110,000), Mchinji (61,000), Ntchisi (63,000), Nkhotakota (71,000), and Salima (54,000) are projected to help him surge to 1,087,000 in the Central region. His stake in the North is projected at 110,000, with Mzimba giving him 68,000 and the remainder split across the other five Northern districts. Chakwera is projected to gain 50,000 votes in the Eastern region and 70,000 in the Southern political regions, giving him a projected total of 1,317,000 votes.
The combined projected votes for Chakwera and Mutharika stand at 3,683,000. With a total of 4,896,000 votes cast, there are still 1,213,000 votes that could be distributed among the candidates. UTM leader Dalitso Kabambe is projected to get 450,000 across the regions, while Joyce Banda should garner around 50,000 and UDF leader Atupele Muluzi around 20,000.
Projections indicate that if Mutharika receives the remaining votes, he could reach a final tally of 3,059,000, while Chakwera’s maximum projected total would be 2,064,000. Mutharika needs only 160,000 votes to avoid a run-off. These projections are based on data captured from unofficial tally centers and MEC projections. The final figure of voters could be around 4.5 million, which would give Mutharika a 53% straight win.
