With Afrobarometer already stating that two thirds of Malawians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) says President Lazarus Chakwera and his Malawi Congress Party are likely to lose the 2025 elections.
The two institutions have been on point with Malawi elections since 1994, correctly predicting Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) landslide in 2009, its return in 2014 and loss in 2020.
“Joint parliamentary and presidential elections are due in September 2025. At the next polls, Mr. Chakwera and the MCP face probable defeat, as the Tonse Alliance is disintegrating, owing to internal strife,” reads its June 2023 analysis.
They cite the issues Malawians have been crying for the past three years especially high level corruption, food shortages, poverty and the poor economy.
“Endemic corruption, which pervades all tiers of government, and a lack of transparency will jeopardise Malawi’s relations with Western partners such as the USA and the EU who contribute substantially in terms of aid and grants,” says the report.
Currently The Investigator Magazine is uncovering corruption scandals in different Ministries with many linked to the Office of the President and Cabinet and senior government and party officials.
The EIU confirms international loss of trust in President Chakwera after the arrest and attempts to fire Anti-Corruption Bureau Director General Martha Chizuma. None of the officials behind the saga have been arrested.
“Chakwera’s anti-corruption fight is now viewed by external observers as a charade, especially following the arrest of the ACB director. We expect a lack of political will to stifle efforts to root out corruption, worsening relations with major Western countries,” reads the report from the influential think tank which is likely to be captured by the IMF in its decision to resume Extended Credit Facility Programme for Malawi.
Chakweras administration approved K105 billion loan for Lake Malawi Water Project, issued sovereign guarantees to a bogus Romanian firm worth K250 billion and is courting another K500 billion worth contract to a “Chief” in energy sector.
Senior Treasury officials are said to be worried over the prospects of IMF meetings as the scandals break.
The London based EIU states that the Presidents Tonse Alliance whose agreement shows Vice President Saulosi Chilima is supposed to be the candidate is almost dead.
It states that Chakwera lacks support from other members of the grouping.
The report does not state who will likely win the 2025 elections.