..MCP split, Chakwera accused of backing Mumba
..Chimwendo accused of manipulating primaries
The ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is facing its biggest electoral defeat, as cabinet ministers and majority of its parliamentarians are being selected through a rigged ballot, giving way to independents to win and disfranchising its voting base, thanks to political mechanisation by Secretary General Richard Chimwendo Banda.
At the centre is the battle for control post September 16 elections, as party leader Lazarus Chakwera will become lame duck, since he will be serving his last term if he wins or will be out of the party if he loses. Chimwendo Banda is setting himself to be the next leader, and his biggest stumbling block is Trade Minister Vitumbiko Mumba, who seems to be heading another side of the party- evidenced by his recent rally at Njamba in Blantyre.
Mumba facing Chimwendo in Mzimba
Mumba who has gained popular appeal due to his radical approach to his cabinet post has been accused by Chimwendo Banda’s camp through his Mzimba Central rival Anderson Mkandawire that he is running away from primaries. Mumba contends he doesnt know the areas committees they are trying to impose to vote.
“Mumba doesn’t know the areas because he is never here,” Mkandawire told local media recently a week after Mumba donated two ambulances to the constituencies two health centres.
Mumba has accused the Secretary General of trying to manipulate the outcome of the party primaries in the constituency.
Mumba has been open that he is facing “stiff opposition” within the party and earlier in March he was shown in a video from his constituency directly attacking Chimwendo Banda saying “wafumo uko na ma mega farm yachoko yachoko” a transalation from the Secretary Generals political gaffe which he claimed government was assisting “small mega farms.”
Primaries being rigged through and through
The same accusations are flaring up in different constituencies where voters registers are being hidden or areas being formed to beef up incumbent parliamentarians.
So far, save for Kasungu South of Simplex Chithyola Banda- the Finance Minister, primaries in the Central Region have retained the incumbent parliamentarians most of whom are unpopular in their constituencies as teams led by Regional Committee Chaired by Zebron Chilondola are manipulating areas and voting teams.
The complaints have come from Mchinji North, Salima North, Dowa Ngala, Lilongwe Mpenu and dozen other areas which is likely to shrink the 56 seats the MCP had in 2019 elections and as losing aspirants are standing as independent candidates.
Chilondola’s term expired but insiders say he made a deal with Chimwendo Banda to retain his committee until after elections. There has been talk of challenging the legality of Chilondola’s committee.
Aspirants are paying the MCP an average of K800,000 just to run on its ticket and many are vowing to become independent candidates after losing the rigged ballot.
At the rate of present elections, all Ministers will end up as parliamentary candidates and majority of MCP MPs despite polls indicating that only three Ministers are likely to return to parliament from Central Region, none from the Northern or Southern regions. Nationally only 30 of the 193 incumbent MPs are projected to return after September polls.
MCP gained its highest number of MP’s since democracy returned in 1994, was in 2004 elections which it won 60 seats under John Tembo and President Chakwera managed to get 56 seats in 2019. There were 55 independents in 2019, a figure that is likely to be surpassed in the 2025 elections.
“It is strange to manipulate primaries when everyone knows the consequences, all the districts have now produced independents including Dowa, Ntchisi, Lilongwe rural and Dedza which were once seen as MCP absolute strongholds. Primaries should have been very free,” MCP veteran politician told us.
The political gulf being created by Chimwendo Banda and Mumba’s fight is being attributed to President Chakwera, whom the Chimwendo Banda’s camp is accusing of backing Mumba.
If Mumba is picked running mate, what happens next?
The political weakness of President Chakwera will haunt him when it is time to appoint a runningmate in the next 60 days (nominations are from July 5th) as he must either pick Speaker Catherine Gotani NyaHara as stipulated by the party constitution or look for a more popular politician to bring votes.
The Speaker is favoured by Chimwendo Banda who knows she is a political duckling who cannot pose a threat when succession time comes, while Mumba who contested and failed for the deputy presidency is seen as a potential rival and threat.
Chimwendo Banda’s team accuse the president of allowing Mumba to go against party discipline without consequences, indicating that if Mumba is picked instead of Gotani NyaHara they would not mobilise the base to vote for Chakwera.
“John Tembo when left in 1999 as runningmate, he went to his base and told them to vote for MP’s only and leave Chakuamba and his new Alliance party to sort themselves. Gwanda lost with a few votes, but it was mainly in MCP bases that did not vote for him. Chakwera will need to outmaneuver Chimwendo Banda’s camp if he wants to win,” a political analyst explained.
But with 50% + 1 voting system and the poor performance by the MCP first five years, President Chakwera needs a popular new politician that can bring votes from the youth who are still angry with his 1 million jobs promise, vendors who are angry with the economy and farmers who want cheap fertilizers failed to deliver.
Mumba can shake the youth vote but lacks political magic to get farmers to believe in Chakwera’s again. The Speaker has failed in the five years to be spokesperson even for women issues despite her high-profile position. Her invisibility as a women’s leader and political platform beyond the North make her unlikely candidate to attract women or youth to Chakwera the way Joyce Banda delivered for Bingu wa Mutharika in 2009.
The option for the President is to seek an alliance with another party and escape the MCP internal boxing fiasco by appoint neither Mumba nor Gotani NyaHara, though Mrs. Abida Sidik Mia, the party’s second deputy President could be a valuable runningmate.
So far MCP will lose, but losing parliament will kill the party
The Investigator Magazine monthly polls indicate continued gains for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with its popularity ranking hitting 46% in February, the month Malawians were facing food crisis and MCP’s Chakwera coming to second with only 21%. UTM is third with 11% closely followed by Joyce Banda’s PP at 10%. 12% remain undecided or for smaller parties.
Mutharika’s DPP will do well even in Lilongwe City, where he is seconded by UTM’s Dalitso Kabambe and Chakwera is third. This is the trend in most Southern Region districts except in Zomba and Kasungu where President Joyce Banda is now second to Mutharika, indicating a mixed outcome for the next elections.
The MCP survived previous presidential elections loss as it remained strong in parliament and failure to hold on to strong holds with a weak leader like President Chakwera, the new generation of voters won’t be held by tribal or generational loyalty. This has been clear- the party needs to be relevant to its voting base beyond tribal vote.
“Lilongwe City has only voted MCP in 2019 and part of 2014. Between 1994 and 2004, it only managed to win Lilongwe City North and Chiuzira and Area 23. UDF from the likes of Iqbal Omar, Kamangadazi Chambalo, Mary Kaphweleza Banda, Bangala. Elizabeth Lamba won seats when MCP was very strong. They gave way to DPP’s Masi, Vinandi and Bhangwanji’s and independents such as Bisnowaty and Nancy Tembo. They need to closely look at their performance in previous elections when people believed them and now when they have failed, as a ruling party it is facing a disaster this time,” says Open Malawi analysis of forthcoming elections.
Despite increasing number of constituencies in the Central Region, the growing number of independents, would see the MCP emerge as the biggest loser if primaries continue in its current compromised state.
